The Daily Telegraph has released a Google Map of the marginal seats inwards the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland election. The Telegraph's map divides the the world into prophylactic constituencies (seats that are probable to vote for the incumbent political political party inwards the seat) in addition to marginal constituencies (seats that mightiness alter hands).
Unfortunately The Telegraph has non explained the methodology they used (they tell the map is based on Research past times the Electoral Reform Society) to arrive at upwards one's heed which are prophylactic seats in addition to which are marginals. The accompanying article mentions seats which convey a long history of voting for a item political political party but I would endure surprised if that is the criteria they used for determining marginal seats.
The map must endure based either on regard polls or on the votes cast inwards the 2010 full general election (or on but about combination of the two). My gauge is that it is based on regard polls, which is why Labour seats inwards Scotland in addition to Liberal Democrat seats inwards the South West are beingness shown every bit marginal on the map (many of these seats wouldn't endure marginal based on the 2010 election). In either illustration the Electoral Reform Party has to convey made an arbitrary sentence telephone telephone every bit to what betoken a spot swings from beingness a prophylactic spot to beingness a marginal (there convey been but about large outliers inwards recent polls in addition to then it would endure useful to know which polls convey been used every bit well).
However the map is however useful every bit a full general direct to which United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland seats are most probable to arrive at upwards one's heed the consequence of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland full general election inwards iii weeks time. The large position out of seats inwards Scotland (many of which await probable moving from Labour to SNP) in addition to inwards the South West (some of which await similar moving from Lib Dem to Conservative) are probable to convey a large affect on the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland election in addition to what await similar beingness interesting discussions afterward the election nearly which political parties volition assort a coalition.
Via: Visual Loop - Digital Cartography (93)
